THE DEGENERATE REPORT: COLLEGE AND NFL PICKS WEEK 4
Picking football games can be challenging, and that’s why you turn to the Degenerate Report. Last week wasn’t my best Degenerate Report. I went 3-3, and on the year, i am 10-8. This isn’t where I want to be but its where I am. Thankfully if you are following Trophy Kids socials, my picks have gone 36-17-2. Make sure you are following @trophykidspod on both Instagram and Twitter.
Here are my picks for the weekend.
(If you want the audio version of this check out this week’s Trophy Kids)
South Carolina vs. Florida -18 O/U 57.5: Talk about two teams that impressed in their first showings of the year. For South Carolina, they came back from being down 21-7 to tie the game in the fourth against the number twenty-one ranked Tennessee Vols. They ended up screwing it up in the end with a bad special teams play and a defense that couldn’t hold it down.
The Gators, on the other hand, looked like a buzzsaw on offense in their opener against Ole Miss. Kyle Trask threw for 416 yards and six touchdowns. This is incredible given the weird preseason this year. This Florida Gators team came out firing. Their secondary, though is an absolute liability right from. Lane Kiffin is a creative coach offensively but its still unacceptable to give up 443 yards through the air and another 170 yards on the ground.
Pair Florida’s insane offense and liability of a secondary with a South Carolina team that should be competent in week two. I like points, points, and points in this game.
Pick: Over 57.5
Texas A&M vs. Alabama -18 O/U 51.5: Last year, when these two teams meet, it was an offensive firework show. Will that happen again this year? I don’t know, but what I do know is if the same Texas A&M team shows up as last week, not a chance. Texas A&M got out of the starting gate stumbling this year. A&M barely got out of the Vanderbilt game alive. You could chalk it up to a rough pre-season and first-game jitters, but I want to see more from this A&M team before I start relying on them for points.
Alabama got out of the starting gate as expected, hot. I bet this team three different ways last Saturday, and they covered all three. Alabama looks as good as expected, and this offense has the potential to be a juggernaut in the SEC this year. I think this game could be close, but ultimately, Bama puts them away. I am expecting another fast start, and that’s why I love this pick.
Pick: Alabama 1st Qtr -6.5
UVA vs. Clemson -28 O/U 55: UVA surprised the hell out of me against Duke. The offense looked good with quarterback Brennan Armstrong throwing for 269 yards and two touchdowns and a ground game lead by Wayne Taulapapa had 95 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries. The defense caused turnover after turnovers, which was good because, without it, Duke was moving the ball on them. They will have to have another strong offense of showing if they expect to even be in the conversation of a cover.
Clemson started the season red hot. The offense looks fantastic and moved the ball with ease. The Defense was a freight train up front, and with a bye week to get healthy, I fear what they can do to this UVA team. Clemson is historically a bad bet early in the season. They tend to get up big early and then try to play every player on the roster. That’s why I don’t love the game cover here. When the backs up come in UVA, good make that covers liability. I do, however, love a different pick in this game. I expect Clemson to do the same thing as always and come out hot.
Pick: Clemson 1st Qtr -7.5
Saints vs. Lions +4 O/U 54: The Saints are in trouble. I have said this multiple times on Trophy Kids, and pretty much everyone who has watched any saints football has been saying it. Father Time is lurking around New Orleans. Drew Brees sees the plays he wants to make, but the arm isn’t there to make them. Now that’s not to say he isn’t still a good quarterback, but he just isn’t elite anymore. He benefits from the Saints still being a very good team that can mask some of that. The bigger problem is the offense is built the way it’s built, and that means Drew has to be able to push it down the field. He isn’t really able to do, and the short plays haven’t been there either. This offense still has managed to score at least 24 points, and Drew gets a defense this week that is bleeding points in the lions. So I expect the Saints to score here, but long term this season, it isn’t looking good.
Lions defense is bad. I mean really bad but like always Mat Stafford can absolutely get into a shoot out. This lions team has yet to be held to less then 21 points.
Pick: Over 54
Seahawks vs. Dolphins +7 O/U 53: The Seahawks are a freight train this year. The offense looks up stoppable right now, and Russell Wilson is the clear cut favorite for MVP. The offense can kill you through the air, and they can kill you on the ground if they want. That’s terrible news for the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are heading in the right direction but have so much further to go. That secondary is allowing the eighth-most yards through the air and while Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked sharp in his last two his is not the long-term option and the wheels will fall off at some point as they always do. This game though I don’t know if they fall completely off. The Seahawks have allowed the most yard through the air yer game.
With two bad secondaries and two offenses that can put up points quick I like another over.
Pick: Over 53
Falcons vs Packers -7.5 O/U 57: This game doesn’t need much analyst. The Aaron Rodgers is a juggernaut and the pack is moving. The Falcons have the offense they need to compete but are mental just not there. The team can’t hold a lead and legs turn to spaghetti every game. Until they show something different I don’t know how you can pick them. Go with the product that is consistent in the right way.
Pick: Packer -7.5
It should be a great week of football and may the picks be in your favor.
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