THE DEGENERATE REPORT: COLLEGE AND NFL BETS WEEK 2
In the first week of the Degenerate Report I went 3-3. Not bad but also not what I am looking for. You come here because over the last three years I have not posted a final record below 60%. To improve on last week I got my eyes on as many games as I could, went back and watch a few, dove into the numbers and now I am ready to come back and give you a six-pack of picks for this week. We have some great games to watch and even better games to bet. I am locked in and ready to have some fun.
Here are my three best bets in College and three best bet in the NFL this weekend.
(If you want the audio version of this check out this week’s Trophy Kids)
Cincinnati vs IU +3.5 O/U 50.5: If you listened to this week’s trophy kids college football show, you already know this pick is my lock of the week! Make sure you are subscribed to pod (wherever you get your podcasts), so you can hop on picks early.
This game is a great match-up to gauge where both these teams are at for future bets. IU has some serious question marks up front with the big uglies. This O-link stinks with a capital S. It has not looked improved from last year, and they have their hands full with Cincy. The D-line of Cincy is a strong point. PFF has it ranked #1 in pressure. This is terrible news for Penix Jr., who has not looked comfortable in games and has struggled in the face of pressure. Idaho was able to pressure Penix on 39% of his dropbacks. That number should increase this week.
The other factor in this game to watch for is how the Cincy offense looks when stepping up in class. I said on the pod I don’t think we talk about how good Desmond Ridder is enough. He never seems to be brought up by national media when talking about the best Qb’s in the nation, but he is. It’s a small sample size, but this year he is 4th in the nation in passing yards per attempt, 3rd in passer efficiency rating, and 12th in comp%. You look at last year, he was 28th in passing yards per attempt, 21st in passer efficiency rating, 85 in comp% (Purdy, who people rave about, was 86th), and he had only 6 int’s to 19 passing TD’s. He is also a mobile guy. The man is a stud.
Pick: Brink Truck lock of the week UC -3.5
Bama vs Florida +14.5 O/U 59.5: God, how I have missed big-time college football games with big-time crowds. We have two of those games, with the weekend with Auburn heading up to Penn State and Bama rolling into the swamp. Big home-field advantages have been huge in betting college football this year, but in this one, I don’t think it matters,
Everyone wants to crown Bama the national champ; I am not ready for that, yet I see some holes in this team that can be exploited. I don’t think it’s happening this week. I don’t like the current Qb situation at Florida right now, Emory jones is not the guy, and AR-15 is battling a hamstring, and Dan Mullen’s stubbornness in not starting him. I think the Florida defense has improved but not nearly enough on the back end to hold back the flood gates of Bama.
You do not usually make money fading Bama, so I got one last thing to say. Roll Damn Tide!
Pick: Bama -14.5
Va Tech vs WVU -2.5 O/U 49.5: This game is just stylistic favors WVU. Va Tech is run-heavy, while WVU is pass-heavy. This is trouble for a Va tech team that I think will struggle to keep up. Jarret Doege is completing 67% of his passes at home while throwing for 11 touchdowns. Va Tech has also struggled on the road lately, so I just can not get behind this Va tech team.
Pick: WVU -2.5
Chiefs vs Ravens +3.5 O/U 54.5: Sometimes you see a line, and you just can’t make sense of it. You know vegas is smart; they win more than they lose, so you get worried. But, then you remember, sometimes Vegas just sets a terrible line. This is one of those times. The Ravens are the exact same team they have been the last three years, maybe even a little worse, and the Chiefs are the same team.
In the last three years, the Chiefs have won 34-20, 33-28,27-24. Patrick Mahomes is 11-0 in the month of September with 37 TDs – 0 Ints. The Chiefs roll teams in September, and the Ravens don’t have the dudes to stop them consistently enough on D. Kelce is absolutely going to feast this week. You also look at the Ravens offense, and they just don’t have the offense of scheme or personnel to keep up if the defense isn’t getting stops.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Pats vs Jets -5.5 O/U 42.5: This is a game I called about on this week’s football show as a best bet and one I had already placed. It pays to be early sometimes.
The Jets are in a rough spot this week. Zach Wilson saw the highest pressure rate last and was the 2nd worst rated QB vs the blitz. This week he will be without Becton on the O-line and going against the defense genius in Bill Belichick.
Bill Belichick is 21-6 against rookie Qb’s. I can guarantee he will have a scheme going that will give Zach Wilson fits. You add that the Pats offense is looking more like old with heavy TE use (the pat’s TE’s had 18 reception all last year, last week, they have 8), good motion rate, and a mixture of play action. You paired that with a QB in Mac jones who looked good against a great secondary in Miami getting to go up against a bottom feeder secondary in the jets. I think we have a solid bet.
Pick: Pats -5.5
Bills vs Miami +3.5 O/U 47.5: This is not my typical best bet but one I see a lot of value in. The Bills team over is ripe for the picking. The Dolphins struggle a lot with the offense scheme the Bills are running and have been absolutely shredded by the Bills last year. The Bills put up 31 and 51 on them last year, and not much has changed. I love this pick.
Pick: Bills over 22
It should be a great week of football and may the picks be in your favor.
P.s. If you are going to gamble make sure to do so responsibly. If you feel like you have a problem or might be developing, a problem, please check out the responsible gambling council website for help.