THE DEGENERATE REPORT: COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5 AND NFL WEEK 4 PICKS
Picking football games can be tough, and that’s why you turn to the Degenerate Report. After three years of finishing with a minimum 60% winning record, I am back at it again, trying to deliver wins.
Last week was most the best but not the worst. I went 3-3, bringing my record on the year to 10-8. Some might say I am just starting to warm up.
I am not going to lie I don’t love the board college board this week, but picks must be made. I got my eyes on lots of football this past weekend and am ready to come back and give you a great six-pack of picks for this week.
Here are my picks for the weekend.
(If you want the audio version of this, check out this week’s Trophy Kids)
Michigan vs. Wisconsin -2.5: If you listened to the pod this week, you know I had a system crash and lost all my notes. So I am going just to do this off the rip. Michigan is 4th in highest % of their plays being run. Wisconsin has the best run defense in the country, only allowing an average of 21.3 rush yards per game. Michigan is a boat crashing into the coast. The coast is going to win.
I know the Wisconsin offense has been miserable, but this is a game where I think they can score just enough to win by a field goal. If the number were -3.5 I would be betting MU, but its at -2.5. I am going Badgers.
Pick: Wisconsin -2.5
Boston College vs Clemson -14.5 O/U43.5: I have been riding BC for years in spots like this. BC is one of the best low-key teams I bet, and I have been on them three times this year, going 2-1. Clemson STINKS! they are terrible, and I think the style bc plays they can keep it within 14.
I love what Jeff Hafley is doing at BC, and I think the backup QB Dennis Grosel offers enough run/pass ability to be perfect in this spot.
Pick: BC +14.5
Arkansas vs Georgia -16.5 O/U 48.5: This number has come down, and I like it even more. Arkansas has been on an absolute tear and I love the story here, but it hits a road bump in this one. Arkansas is coming off a physical and emotionally draining two-game stretch. KJ Jefferson is banged up and so is their best deep threat, Treylon Burks. Both playing but not 100%.
UGA is the best team in the country right now, and they are getting a huge offensive of weapon back this week in TE Darnell Washington. They also add Tykee smith to the secondary, all big positives for UGA. But UGA just has too much going for them in this one.
Pick: UGA -16.5
WTF vs Falcons +1.5 O/U47.5: WTF is in a get-right spot in this game. They have been torched by two of the better offense in the Bills and Charger and need a reset game on defense. That is what ATL offers here. The line stinks, the weapons are not producing, and Matty Ice is a statue out there, waiting to get hit.
You flip sides, I think there are mismatches all over the place between the WTF offense and ATL defense all favoring WTF. Plus, they are getting Curtis Samuel Jr back which offers another target to help balance out scray terry.
Pick: WTF -1.5
Giants vs Saints -7 O/U47.5: The Saints simply can not move the ball on offense. They are averaging one of the lowest yard per play rates in the NFL. Their efficiency number suck and Jameis is still making terrible decision with the ball (have luckily gone his way to this point but that will stop eventually). All of this makes it hard to cover a 7 point spread even against the giants, who, to their credit, still have some fight in them.
Pick: Giants +7
Ravens vs Broncos +1 O/U 44.5: I have loved the Broncos this year and have been super profitable to beat. Teddy Two Gloves Covers is on a tear, but unfortunately, this week, I think they suffer their first loss. I still love the Broncos long-term, but I think they are just too banged up to take on the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who is on an absolute tear.
Pick: Ravens -1
It should be a great week of football and may the picks be in your favor.
P.s. If you are going to gamble, make sure to do so responsibly. If you feel like you have a problem or might be developing a problem, please check out the responsible gambling council website for help.