THE DEGENERATE REPORT: COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 AND NFL WEEK 5 PICKS
Picking football games can be tough, and that’s why you turn to the Degenerate Report. After three years of finishing with a minimum 60% winning record, I am back at it again, trying to deliver wins.
Last week was a great week. I went 5-1, bringing my record on the year to 15-9, not too shabby.
I am not going to lie I don’t love the NFL board this week even though I have been hot in the NFL. On picks last week on Trophy Kids Podcast, I went 10-5. Make sure you are checking out Trophy Kids Podcast for our weekly NFL and College Football show.
I got my eyes on lots of football this past weekend and am ready to come back and give you a great six-pack of picks for this week.
Here are my picks for the weekend.
(If you want the audio version of this, check out this week’s Trophy Kids)
Oklahoma vs Texas +3.5 O/U64.5: It’s time once again for one of the best rivalries in college football. The Red River Showdown is never a disappointment. I love this game, and I like the pick for this one. Look for most because Oklahoma isn’t lighting teams on fire people mistake them for bad. This is still a good football team but has some holes. The explosiveness isn’t there with passing yards 20+ or a dual-threat QB, but the offense is still efficient, and rattler is extremely good throwing the ball under 20 yards.
The weak spot for the Oklahoma defense is their secondary, which is fine. Texas is run-heavy, and why not? They have arguably the best back in the country, which plays to Oklahoma’s defense. Alex Grinch loves to be aggressive defensively and wants you to try and beat them through the air. I don’t think Texas can.
Pick: Oklahoma -3.5
Bama vs Texas A&M +17.5 O/U50.5: Texas A&M is dead! The offense stinks and the defense is losing ground. Bama, on the other hand, is red hot. They do have weak points, as discussed on Trophy Kids, but Texas A&M is not in a position to take advantage of them. Bama is notorious for starting games quickly because Nick Saban is the best at pregame game planning. I expect Bama to pour it on early.
Pick: Bama First Half -10.5
PSU vs Iowa -1.5 O/U 41.5: I have doubted Iowa for too long. Sure the offense scares me, but the defense is extremely good. Penn State defense is no pushover either. At the end of the day, it comes down to me believing Clifford is going back to his old self and going to turnover the ball.
You want a more in-depth breakdown to check out trophy kids podcast.
Pick: Iowa -1.5
Bills vs Chiefs -3.5 O/U56.5: This honest to god might be the best game of the regular season. I’m jacked to the tits for this game. What makes me nervous is how much I like the bills here. For me, the chiefs are Oklahoma. They rely on the offense to outpace the other team trashing their defense. This works when your playing texas or baylors of the world, but when you step up in class, it’s a different story. The bills are a different class.
The offense is humming and the defense is improved and rocking. Their defense will come up with a key stop or two.
Pick: Bills +3.5
Saints vs WTF +2.5 O/U43.5: The Saints simply can not move the ball on offense. They are averaging one of the lowest yard per play rates in the NFL. Their efficiency numbers suck, and Jameis is still making a terrible decision with the ball (have luckily gone his way to this point but that will stop eventually). The risk with this play, though is it could be a get-right game for Jameis against this terrible defense.
I have become a huge believer in Taylor Heinicke. Last week on the show, I said he was becoming the next Ryan Fitzpatrick (you should seriously be listening to Trophy Kids, what are you doing). The guy just loves to make plays. I think you mix that with a defense that is pissed off at how bad they are playing, and I believe they have a more than a better shot at beating the Saints.
Pick: WTF +2.5
Packers vs Bengals +3 O/U50.5: This is an interesting spot. Injuries play a big role in this one. Jessie Bate is back for the Bengals, which is huge for their secondary and Jaire Alexander is out for the packers, which is a huge blow to the packers. This play only works if Zach Taylor keeps what he had going in the second half of last week, and lets joe be joe. Let hope so.
Pick: Bengals +3
It should be a great week of football and may the picks be in your favor.
P.s. If you are going to gamble, make sure to do so responsibly. If you feel like you have a problem or might be developing a problem, please check out the responsible gambling council website for help.