The Degenerate Report: Betting College Football week 4 and NFL week 3
We didn’t get off to a great start last week, but with the first fall chill in the air, we have a great football weekend to make up for it. If you are new to the Degenerate Report, welcome! Every week I post my three best bets in College and the NFL. This will be my fifth season doing this, and last year was the worst year-to-date season, with a final win rate of 58%. So, let’s get rolling with the Degenerate Report: College football week 4 and NFL week 3.
Also, make sure to listen to Trophy Kids Podcast to hear additional picks!
Clemson vs. Wake Forst +7.5 O/U 55.5: This is the most don’t over think it games I have seen this far in college football. We talked about this at length on the Trophy Kids podcast, but I have honest concerns about how Wake will be able to perform on offense. They are facing, in my opinion, the best and deepest defensive lines in college football. This D-line is going to eat Wake’s lunch.
I love Sam Hartman, but outside of him, I would argue this Wake team is worst than last year’s team, and Clemson handled them 48-27. Now you might say, “Nate Clemson’s offense sucks,” and I would say true. The only problem is Wakes Defense is as solid as swiss cheese. But Clemson will get rolling on offense and defensively smush Wake.
Pick: Clemson -7.5
JMU vs. App State -7 O/U 57.5: I am trying my best to put away my Virginia bias on this game. Being from Virginia, I have the distinct pleasure of knowing what JMU brings to the table. I won’t lie; it’s hard to truly judge a team in its first year jumping from the FCS level to the FBS level, but JMU is a solid football team all around. They have been an FCS powerhouse for years and are catching App State on an incredible run on games drained of energy.
Pick: JMU +7
USC VS Oregon State +6 O/U 70.5: The moment USC hired Lincoln Riely, I said he would have USC back in Playoff shape within 3 years. USC’s sleeping giant has officially woken up and is off and running this. This offense is absolutely lethal and exceptionally well-balanced. The biggest surprise for me is how well they can run the ball. I expected the passing attack to be one of the best in the nation but right now, this USC team is running well, giving them an actual playoff-level offense.
The problem, though, is the USC defense. This defense is rotting garbage being masked by some lucky bounces and turnovers. They cannot get much push in the trenches, and offensives have moved the ball relatively easily. Oregon State’s offense of line has looked good so far, allowing this offense to move the ball. I will do something I never do and buy the point to move it up to a touchdown spread.
Pick: Oregon State +7
Chiefs vs. Colts -5.5 O/U 50.5: This is the NFL; don’t overthink game of the NFL season. Patrick Mahomes has played Gus Bradley’s defenses 7 times and has thrown 17 TDs to 2 INTs. Bradley’s Colts D has allowed a 72% completion rate to start the season (#31). Keep in mind that has come against Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. The Colt’s offense also stinks right now.
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
49ers vs. Broncos +1.5 O/U 43.5: For all the hate Jimmy G gets, this man knows how to win football games. During the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers with Jimmy G are 35-16; without Jimmy G, they are 9-29. This is some football Voodoo magic. I don’t quite understand it, but I don’t have to. I just have to know that the offense works as designed with jimmy g in there.
You add this on top of Russ stinking it up in the Nathaniel Hacket brain-dead offense, and I think we have a winner here.
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Jags vs Chargers -3 O/U 42.5: Justin Herbert is an absolute savage for what he did last week. That man will forever be a legend to all degenerates that had a chargers ticket the previous week. Still, unfortunately, it is looking like we won’t be playing this. Hell, the Charger’s injury report is looking awful grim right now. This game has all the makings of a slugfest.
Pick: Chargers under 23 points
It should be an excellent football week, and may the picks be in your favor.
Also, check out Trophy Kids Pod for all the sports takes you will ever need, and follow @TheeTrophyKid on Twitter and Instagram for bonus picks.
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